Dec 6, 2008

A Window on Hotel CMBS: Columbia Sussex

In the four years prior to 2008, mortgage backed securities drove the hotel acquisition market. Though issuance of new CMBS in 2008 has been replaced by withered vines (less than 1/10th the issues in the first two quarters of 2008 compared to 2007, and 0 in the third), CMBS defaults have remained quite low. In the next couple years, however, we’ll be seeing just how those vintages from 5 years back have matured. Will they be Chateau Latour, or will an economy in recession turn them to vinegar?

While the bulk of CMBSs may be able to survive the recent credit collapse, those with underlying assets that are economically sensitive may have a more difficult time of it, as may be the case with hotels. Projections for 2009 revenue per available rooms (RevPAR, a key metric for hotels) are falling as the economy worsens. Smith Travel Research reports that RevPAR for October 2008 declined 7% from the same month a year ago. If we have a hotel market which stumbles through 2009, two important questions come to the fore. First, could lagging revenues cause trouble in satisfying debt obligations? And second, how will owners refinance when their existing CMBS loans come to term?

While many CMBSs are based on a mix of commercial property types, those that are heavily skewed towards hotels will warrant a watchful eye. One particular CMBS, the Bear Stearns 2006-BBA7, is composed exclusively of hotel properties, and dominated by hotels owned by Columbia Sussex – one of the largest owners of full-service hotels in the US. Columbia Sussex is owned by William Yung, whose gaming company, Tropicana Entertainment, filed for Chapter 11 protection earlier this year.

Columbia Sussex loans accounted for 79% of the 2006-BBA7’s original loan principal. $1.1 billion was borrowed to finance acquisition of a portfolio of 14 hotels from Wyndham in October 2005: $570 million in Senior Notes and $532 in Mezzanine Loans. The loan is renewable for a one-year extension in October 2009 before maturing in 2010.

The real risk for this CMBS is Columbia Sussex’s performance. This portfolio of hotels has seen RevPAR go from $99.60 at issuance (the 12 months ending March 31, 2006) to $105.58 for year-to-date September 2008; occupancy went from 76% at time of issuance to 65% for year-to-date September 2008; and net cash flow declined 6% for YE2007 compared to issuance. These numbers show signs of struggle at a time when the hotel industry generally prospered nationwide.

Additionally, the portfolio’s second largest hotel, the 707-room Baltimore Sheraton, is in the midst of a labor dispute and boycott which has moved $2.142 million worth of hotel customers since November 2007. To make matters worse, a 757-room Hilton has opened in August 2008, adjacent to the convention center just a few blocks away.

Heading into a tighter hotel cycle with decreased occupancy and cash flow, this CMBS is one to watch amongst the slew of CMBSs that will require refinancing on the heels of the credit crisis and recession. The simultaneous need to refinance this portfolio’s mezzanine loans may compound efforts to refinance the first mortgage notes backing this CMBS.

According to Bloomberg News, there will be $185 billion worth of CMBSs coming due between 2010 and 2012 which originated in 2005-2007. “’Barring an economic/credit market miracle between now and then, the combination of falling property values, higher interest rates and tougher underwriting standards means numerous CMBS borrowers will have to come up with more money to refinance or default and return the property back to the lender…” according to a study cited by Bloomberg [10/3/08].

A full report on the risks associated with the Bear Stearns 2006-BBA7 CMBS, written by the UNITEHERE Research Department, is available at: Columbia Sussex Hotels: The Other Shoe?

Disclosure: The author is an employee of UNITE HERE, which represents approximately 100,000 non-gaming hotel workers in North America and represents workers at five non-gaming hotels owned and operated by Columbia Sussex, including two with active labor disputes.

source: seekingalpha.com

link to the original post:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/109364-a-window-on-hotel-cmbs-columbia-sussex


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Dec 5, 2008

China's yuan set to reverse course

By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - China, faced with factory closures and slowing export growth as the global economy slows, is apparently prepared to weaken the value of its currency against the US dollar in defiance of a key policy goal of the United States, even as US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson visits Beijing this week.

A weaker yuan, which would signal an about-turn by Beijing after three years of appreciation, will help to hold down prices of China's exports, raising the likelihood of further increases in its already contentiously high trade surplus with the US. At the same time, a lower yuan will make imports to China from the US more expensive at a time when American workers are fast losing jobs



as factories there close on falling demand at home and abroad.

Paulson is expected to press for a stronger yuan in talks starting in Beijing on Thursday, just three days after the Chinese currency posted the biggest decline in value since the nation scrapped a fixed exchange rate in 2005.

The US initially welcomed China's July 2005 decision to remove the peg tying the value of the yuan to the US dollar and link the yuan instead to a vaguely defined basket of currencies. Pressure soon grew in Washington, however, for a faster rate of appreciation as the US trade deficit with China continued to mount, sucking ever-more dollars into the Chinese treasury.

A body of US legislators, notably Senators Lindsey Graham and Charles Schumer, and their supporters argue that China has maintained an artificially weak yuan to give its exports an unfair pricing edge in world markets.

China allowed the pace of yuan appreciation to increase during the first half of this year, under pressure from US and European countries. But the appreciation essentially stopped in July, followed by a sharp depreciation in recent days.

Paulson, who is in Beijing to take part in the fifth round of the so-called "Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED)" with China that he initiated in 2006, used previous such meeting to switch the focus of the gathering from the strength of the yuan to other issues.

As recently as December 2, Paulson said the Chinese had been "very responsible partners and stakeholders and have continued to stand by us and stand by our debt". The 20% appreciation of the yuan against the dollar since 2005 has been "important and significant".

The apparent reversal of the Chinese policy regarding appreciation now looks likely to put the yuan back to center stage in the Sino-US relationship, just when Paulson's authority is weakened as he prepares to leave office in January.

This week, the yuan continually hit the bottom of its permitted daily trading band, which extends 0.5% on either side of a midpoint. The yuan traded at 6.8838 to the US dollar as of 2.30 pm in Shanghai Thursday, after dropping as low as 6.8845 and down from 6.8830 on Wednesday. That put the currency near its lowest since June 17, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The currency hit a record high of 6.8099 on September 23.

The yuan may fall to 8.06 per dollar in one year, Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank Co in Shanghai, told Asia Times Online.

"This is the beginning of the yuan's depreciation," Lu said. "The yuan is set to reverse course. Its slump signals the central bank has changed its policy to one of support for a weaker currency. For developing countries such as China, economic growth prospects are most important. China's exporters are facing tremendous difficulties. A 10% depreciation would help more of them to survive."

Paulson's leverage on the issue is considered limited as China is already the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries, surpassing Japan. In the event of a dispute, a strong move by China to reduce its Treasury and US corporate debt holdings could severely undermine already weakening global confidence in the US financial system. It would also threaten an end to the dollar standard system from which the US has benefited since the start of the 1944 Bretton Woods regime.

"There is widespread speculation Chinese authorities will change their stance toward the weaker yuan policy," said Masashi Kurabe, senior assistant general manager and head of trading group at global markets division for the East Asia Region at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd in Hong Kong, a unit of Japan's largest publicly traded lender by market value. "So many local companies are in a rush to buy the dollar. And there are almost no sellers, excluding the central bank, because those sellers have no need to be in a rush to sell the dollar for the time being.''

The Chinese currency may move between 6.8 and 7 per dollar in six months on the spot market, Kurabe said. In the off-shore market, the non-deliverable forward rate of the yuan would fall further, he said, because of rising speculation over China's policy shift on the yuan, especially from early 2009.

The yuan may depreciate by more than 6% over the next 12 months according to Thursday's trade in non-deliverable forwards, which are used to bet on future yuan moves. That compares with a 2.6% depreciation indicated by trading last week.

"There has been a lot of attention this week on the recent sharp rise in the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, raising fears of yuan weakness going forward," Ashley Davies, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Singapore, wrote in a client note Wednesday.

"Actually, these developments are a logical extension of the [global financial] crisis, since slowing global growth reduces demand for Chinese exports and hence the need for Chinese intervention to stop rapid yuan appreciation. If the US wishes China to continue purchasing Treasuries, it will have to accept that the Chinese yuan will have to weaken," Davies said. "[T]he days of a combination of appreciating the Chinese yuan and large-scale purchases of [US] Treasuries by the Chinese may be over for now - something will have to give."

In September, China surpassed Japan to become the biggest foreign holder of US Treasury debt, with a total of $585 billion. China's $2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves (the world's largest, followed by Japan's $1 trillion), are primarily invested in relatively low-yielding US government debt and the until recently considered safe debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two mortgage-finance companies taken over by the US government three months ago.

While speculation at present indicates the scale of any weakening of the yuan will be small, the global consequences of the policy u-turn could be considerable.

"The impact of China's currency devaluation should be very big," said C H Kwan, a senior fellow at the Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research, a unit of Japan's largest brokerage. "It [could] lead to international competition by currency devaluation - a beggar-my-neighbor policy. It should be hard for China to do that. For China it should be a move of the last resort."

Competitive devaluations have been cited by some writers as a key cause of the Great Depression that started in 1929, leading eventually to the onset of World War II. The 1944 Bretton Woods agreements was originally set out a framework for financial stability that would reduce the likelihood for competitive devaluations and laid the foundations for the post-war economic expansion.

As recently as the 1997-98 Asia financial crisis, Beijing was widely praised for not cutting the value of the yuan as currencies elsewhere in the region tumbled.

Concern over a currency u-turn comes after China other efforts to boost its economy. Last week, Beijing cut the benchmark interest rate by the most in 11 years. It has also unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to protect the economy from a global recession. China’s economy grew 9% from a year earlier, the slowest pace in five years, in the third quarter, as exports fell along with the global economic slump.

China's gross domestic product growth will slow to 8% in the present quarter from a year earlier, the State Information Center, a think-tank under the National Development and Reform Commission, said in a report published on November 27, the lowest quarterly growth since at least the fourth quarter of 2005.

"For developing countries like China, an 8% growth is not acceptable," Industrial Bank’s Lu said.

China's export growth cooled to 19.2% in October, the slowest pace in four months, prompting a pledge from Vice Premier Wang Qishan to "take all measures" to stabilize overseas shipments, Xinhua News Agency said on December 2. That could lead to a reversal in China's trade surplus.

"There is no such situation that China's trade surplus will keep ballooning, so the yuan may move around the current level of 6.8 per dollar in one year," Kwan said.

China's exports to the US increased 6.8%, to $250.4 billion, in the first nine months of 2008, compared with the same period a year earlier, according to US Commerce Department figures. US exports to China rose at more than double that pace, at 17.3% to $55 billion from January through September. That still left a $195.4 billion trade deficit that some lawmakers argue is hurting American manufacturers.

The US trade deficit with China widened in October to a monthly record $27.8 billion.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. He can be contacted at letters@kosuke.net

(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

source: asia times

link to the original post:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JL05Cb04.html


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Miami-Dade makes lenders maintain vacant foreclosures

Miami-Dade passed new local laws this week to rein in rot on abandoned homes and protect buyers.


  Realtor Hagen Hendrix with Avatar Real Estate Services at a home at 7820 SW 57th Ct. in South Miami. Hendrix used to sell real estate in the boom. He is supporting an ordinance that requires lenders to start maintaining homes before the foreclosure process is complete.
Realtor Hagen Hendrix with Avatar Real Estate Services at a home at 7820 SW 57th Ct. in South Miami. Hendrix used to sell real estate in the boom. He is supporting an ordinance that requires lenders to start maintaining homes before the foreclosure process is complete.
AL DIAZ / MIAMI HERALD

mhatcher@MiamiHerald.com

Hagen Hendrix never thought selling homes would require him to pack heat.

But the real estate agent now brings a pistol when he visits the foreclosures he is trying to sell for banks, in case he runs into ne'er-do-wells squatting in the long-vacant homes.

Job safety is one reason Hendrix supports Miami-Dade County's plan to require lenders to start maintaining vacant homes before they have finished foreclosing. Another ordinance requires lenders to provide buyers with a full report of building and zoning defects. The laws, passed Tuesday, are the latest endeavor by local governments to prevent blighted properties from dragging down home values.

Other real estate agents believe the extra measures -- which only pertain to homes in unincorporated Miami-Dade -- will add headaches and slow the selling of bank-owned homes.

Typically, foreclosures are sold ''as is,'' with limited or no inspections. The new law requires a building and zoning inspection by the county that would uncover defects or code violations. Inspection reports must include estimates of repair costs and be recorded with the county clerk where the public can review them.

''There's nothing wrong [with `as is']. People aren't lying to you,'' said Alex Doce, president of Miami-based Baron Mortgage. ``When you go to an auction, there's a reason why you're getting such a great bargain.''

In addition to slowing down the already complex foreclosure process, requiring lenders to maintain homes before they actually own them could expose them and their representatives to legal liabilities, lenders and agents say.

Commissioners, though, fear that as interest in buying bank-owned homes grows, naive bargain hunters may end up getting stuck in money pits. Foreclosures are often stripped of wiring, appliances and fixtures, if not by homeowners then by burglars.

The moves by Miami-Dade reflect the ongoing efforts of cities throughout South Florida to govern the way banks sell the growing number of homes they take back from borrowers.

Lenders owned nearly 21,000 homes in Miami-Dade and Broward at the end of October, according to data firm RealtyTrac. Tens of thousands more are in some stage of foreclosure and vacant. According to Coral Gables-based realty firm EWM, about 30 percent of all homes listed for sale are in foreclosure or bank-owned.

In Florida, it can take up to a year before a lender gets title to a property through foreclosure. But most homeowners move out before then, leaving the home empty and untended for months. That leaves local governments struggling to pick up the slack, spending scarce resources to mow laws and clean pools.

''The problem is going to become more and more exacerbated,'' said Commissioner Barbara Jordan, whose district covers Miami Gardens and Opa-locka, which have some of Miami-Dade's highest foreclosure rates.

But the new laws may make the problem worse, says Doug DeWitt, a local real estate agent who also manages foreclosures for lenders. 'I believe if my asset managers were told you need this and that . . . they would say, `Just put this file to the side of your desk and we'll talk about it later.' And six months would go by and neighborhoods would suffer,'' DeWitt said.

DeWitt also said it did little good to have such ordinances in only unincorporated areas, and that a concerted effort among cities was needed to make a difference.

Several cities, including North Miami and Hialeah, already have more stringent rules mandating that houses are fully livable before they can change hands, meaning working utilities, bathrooms and a kitchen -- a major obstacle given the condition of many foreclosures.

Hendrix said he nearly lost a deal on a North Miami home because the buyer's agent had not secured an inspection, delaying the closing.

''In one to two weeks, interest rates could have changed, the process on financing can have to start over,'' Hendrix said. Hialeah officials said they were trying to be flexible with lenders and agents and were expediting inspections.

Cities in Broward are taking similar steps. Over the summer, Coral Springs began requiring lenders to register properties with the city as soon as they filed a foreclosure so that code enforcement officers could alert them when problems arose. There are about 170 properties registered, said Assistant City Manager Erdal Donmez.

As for keeping up homes before misfits strike, few argued against the need to protect the value of a home and its neighbors.

But Jim Angleton, senior vice president of Miami-based Republic Federal Bank, said forcing lenders to maintain homes before they own them was ``foolish.''

''If we haven't received title, we're inheriting someone else's liabilities,'' Angleton said. ``Some borrowers go bankrupt or play stalling games of reinstating the mortgage, then they don't come up with the money.''

A bank representative was once prevented from inspecting a foreclosure on Fisher Island because he could not prove the bank owned the home and was blocked from riding the ferry, Angleton said.


source: miamiherald.com

link to the original post:
http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/800110.html


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Retiree Havens Turn Younger to Combat the Housing Bust

DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla. -- For Sheldon Behr, buying a condo in Century Village East has meant the chance to live out his retirement years with other older adults who enjoy golf, long walks and comedy nights at the clubhouse. But with the financial crisis deepening and the housing market stalled, a growing number of units at the 55-and-over community are lying vacant.

[Sheldon Behr]

Sheldon Behr

Some residents are now considering the once unthinkable: letting younger people in -- a proposition that has pitted neighbor against neighbor. "We don't want someone to come in and suddenly have a flock of kids," says Mr. Behr, 65 years old, who opposes the move. "That'll destroy our village forever."

At "active adult" developments across the U.S., residents are debating whether to scrap the age restrictions that have helped define their way of life for almost five decades. Proponents of "age desegregation," as it's known in the industry, say opening the doors to people under 55 is the only way their once-idyllic enclaves can stay afloat amid a worsening economic climate.

From Florida to Arizona, condos are sitting idle as potential buyers find themselves stuck, unable to sell their houses and relocate. Residents of one New Jersey 55-plus development are living next to open foundations, with only 32 of 175 planned homes sold. And with retirement accounts hammered by the investment markets' plunge, people living in these communities are falling behind on homeowners' dues and scaling back on clubhouse activities.

But desegregation is nonetheless a hard sell among some residents of these developments, who say the change would ruin the dream they bought into in the first place. An influx of younger residents could also affect relations with surrounding neighborhoods. Municipalities have long favored developments for retirees because they don't require additional services like schools.

"Towns see these people as contributing to the tax base but not costing the community so much," says William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "But there is a whole host of ancillary services that go with having lots of young children and teenagers. Then, you're talking about a significant increase in municipal expenses."

No one is predicting that age-restricted living will disappear entirely. But the financial downturn could be the tipping point that forces some places to reinvent themselves.

[Graying Nation]

Many of these communities had already been struggling with declining sales as aging baby boomers either postpone retirement or opt to retire elsewhere. Last year, about 1.1 million households could be found in active-adult settings, down from 1.8 million in 2001, according to the National Association of Home Builders. And in a recent survey by AARP, the membership group for older Americans, almost nine in 10 people said they don't want to move at all in retirement; instead, they want to "age in place."

Retirement communities were popularized in the early 1960s by real-estate entrepreneurs like Del Webb, whose Sun City developments promoted the idea of a leisure-filled lifestyle specifically for older adults. In Arizona, California and Florida, retirees lined up to buy one-story villas bordering golf courses.

Usually run by elected boards of homeowners, these communities have spread to the Midwest and Northeast in recent years. They usually offer activities geared toward retirees, feature strict rules about homes' appearances, and have their own security staff and volunteer "posses" to keep an eye out for violations.

Typically, 80% of residents in active-adult communities must be at least 55 years old to meet federal regulations that allow developments to exclude children. (Many neighborhoods have rules requiring one household member to meet the age requirement.) Some enjoy low taxes. Residents of Sun City, a retirement community in Sun City, Ariz., for instance, don't pay city taxes because the development is technically unincorporated. They also pay relatively low school taxes, making their overall tax burden one-half to two-thirds lower than people in nearby towns, according to the Arizona Department of Commerce.

Lower Age Requirement

Last year, residents of the nearby Sun City Grand in Surprise, Ariz., voted to lower their age requirement to 45 from 55 -- though children under age 19 still aren't allowed as permanent residents.

The board of the 9,802-unit development, built in 1996, "felt like it would help our community financially in many areas," says Meda Cates, membership director for the Sun City Grand Community Association. "As people grow older, they stay home more. They don't golf, they don't use the facilities or the restaurants."

The Arizona Republic

NEW NEIGHBORS: The Sun City Grand Dance Club performs at this year's Oktoberfest. The community recently lowered its age requirement.

John Longabaugh, a city councilman who lives in the development, puts it this way: "If everybody's 80, nobody's using the two weight rooms."

Since Sun City Grand relaxed its age restrictions, the community has drawn people like Tom Butler, 48, a kitchen designer, and his wife, Jill, who is 53. The place popped up on their radar a year ago, when Ms. Butler visited her daughter-in-law's grandparents, who live in the community. She says she was "totally charmed by it," and drawn to the "plethora of activities." This fall, the couple bought one of Sun City Grand's "Casita" models, a ranch-style home with a pool and a guest house. "Sometimes, people look at us and say, 'You're not old enough to be here,' " says Ms. Butler. "But we take it as a compliment."

No one tracks the number of active-adult communities that are lowering their age limits or dropping them altogether. But developers and homeowners' associations say it's becoming the strategy-of-last-resort the longer homes sit vacant. Leisure World in Mesa, Ariz., has loosened its age requirements, and the homeowners' association at Arizona Traditions, another development in Surprise, is mulling whether to lower the minimum age to 45. In New Jersey, the age restrictions have been lowered or dropped for at least nine new projects, while an additional 10 planned developments were scrapped altogether, says Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group Inc., a real estate market-analysis firm in East Brunswick, N.J.

Dominoes and Leaf Peeping

At the Esplanade in Hudson, Mass., near Boston, people 55 and older can buy two-bedroom condominiums for about $250,000. Movies play on a big-screen TV in the common area on Saturday nights, regular groups play dominoes, and there are leaf-peeping outings to New Hampshire.

But since it broke ground in 2005, only two-thirds of the Esplanade's 140 units have been sold. The company has recouped $20 million of its $32 million in construction costs, says Joanne Foley, the attorney for MP Development LLC, which built the Esplanade. So last March, MP petitioned the town of Hudson to allow it to sell condos there to younger buyers.

Lou Tagliani, a 67-year-old retired physicist, is among the residents who have spoken out against the plan. He and his wife moved into the Esplanade because "we want to live with people our own age and interests," he says. Bringing in younger people "would change the general complexion of the community."

So far, homeowners in Mr. Tagliani's camp are winning: Hudson's town government in September denied the developer's request, saying that changing the rules would be unfair to residents who already had purchased units. In an effort to stave off an appeal by the developer to state officials, residents are hosting open houses and tours for prospective buyers their own age. Ms. Foley says relaxing the rules wouldn't harm the community, but so far, MP has no plans to appeal.

In Century Village, the three-decades-old retirement development in Deerfield Beach, some units are empty because grown children who inherited them can't sell them. Kenneth Barnett, the treasurer for the village management, says often the families don't pay the insurance or the monthly dues, which amount to about $5,000 a year for each unit.

The community is composed of 254 white stucco condominium buildings, nearly all governed by their own board of directors. Those boards are generally allowed to approve sales to people under age 55. Until recently, such sales were almost unheard of. But with two-bedroom condos that would have sold for $120,000 two years ago now as low as $40,000, younger people living in the area are now trying to move in, and are arguing their cases to condo boards.

Martin Cohen, an 88-year-old retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and resident of Century Village, voices common concerns about younger people moving in: "They speed. They use Century Boulevard as a race track," he says. But some buildings have decided they prefer that scenario to empty units.

Roy Landesman, an 89-year-old retired door-hinge salesman from New York, says 10% of the units in his condominium building are vacant. So his building is letting younger families move in; he now has a neighbor in her 20s. Century Village East's Master Management, which maintains the development, including its 16 swimming pools and 765 acres of palm trees and canals, "doesn't like it, but I don't care what they say," Mr. Landesman says.

Donna Capobianco, president of Master Management, says the community is financially viable as it is, and that there are many older retirees who want to move into Century Village, but who are waiting for prices to drop even more.

A 'Natural Way' to Live

Newer retirement communities could go the way of Pine River Village, originally sold as a 55-plus development in Lakewood, N.J. Over the past three years, hundreds of potential buyers had joined the waiting list for Pine River, but by this November, only 32 houses had been sold of the 175 that were planned. The developer, Ralph Zucker, appealed to Pine River's residents a few months ago to agree to let him eliminate age restrictions from the rest of the development, which they did. Now, he is trying to persuade the town to approve the plan.

Lakewood Mayor Raymond Coles says that township officials are sympathetic, but they are trying to sort out whether it's legal to change the zoning because the project is part of a redevelopment zone that specifically called for senior housing.

Residents have spoken up at public meetings in favor of the request. They say they realize that Mr. Zucker can't maintain the development, with its fitness center, indoor pool with a retractable roof, and elaborate landscaping, without monthly dues from more residents. They also worry that unless dozens of houses are built on the vast expanse of cleared land they can see out their windows, their property values could slide; they paid between $350,000 and $700,000 for their houses. Their monthly homeowner's association fees of $260 a month, based on 175 houses, could also climb sharply.

Some are tired of living in a construction zone. Mordechai and Hadassah Goodman moved to Pine River in February after retiring from Chicago to be closer to children and grandchildren. But as the finishing touches were being put on their home, construction in the rest of the community was grinding to a halt. Their manicured lawn borders acres of plowed-up dirt, cinder-block outlines of future homes, and 9-foot-deep foundations on otherwise vacant lots.

"I was out here playing football with one of the grandchildren -- and kicked the ball right into [an open] basement," says Mr. Goodman, a 71-year-old retired math professor.

To ease residents' concerns, Mr. Zucker has agreed to group younger buyers on one side of the village, create separate entrances, and plant shrubbery -- or even build a fence -- in between, if the plan is approved.

Some of Pine River's residents acknowledge that they're having to adjust their expectations for retirement. Mrs. Goodman, 64, says she's now looking forward to having younger neighbors: "It seems like a more natural way to live."

Write to Kelly Greene at kelly.greene@wsj.com and Jennifer Levitz at jennifer.levitz@wsj.com

source: wsj

link to the original post:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122809427244267951.html


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Maintaining Separation of Banking and Commerce is Critical, Say Realtors

(WASHINGTON, DC) - The National Association of Realtors® in a letter to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke has expressed deep concern over GMAC's application for bank holding company status.

"NAR continues to support the separation of banking and commerce," said NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth.

"During this time of economic uncertainty, we can't risk a departure from the one element of our regulatory system that has worked."

Charles McMillan

NAR has consistently maintained the need to keep the lines between banking and commerce clear and unambiguous. GMAC's renewed effort, if successful, would be a dangerous precedent that would inevitably lead to the erosion of the separation of banking and commerce.

"The risk is too high, and the reward too dubious for GMAC's application to be approved. Given the serious problems facing the nation's financial system, now is the time to enhance stability, not undermine it," said McMillan.

Because banks play a unique role in the nation's financial system, Congress established a national policy against mixing banking and commerce.

"This policy is meant to keep banks focused on the business of banking, as well as to protect the overall economy from commerce activities that may go awry," said McMillan. "The current condition of the auto industry just reinforces the need to separate banking and commerce. When these activities mix, it creates risks to the security and vitality of our financial system and can also negatively impact competition on many fronts. It is imperative for GM to completely divest of GMAC before this application is granted consideration, or the application should be disapproved."

NAR will closely follow this application as well as any other attempts to mix commerce and banking.

source: realestatechannel.com

link to the original post:
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/commercial-real-estate-1/washington-dc-nar-national-association-of-realtors-and-federal-reserve-ben-bernanke-mcmillan-and-coldwell-banker-and-gmac-congress-banking-commerce-176.php


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Keepin' It Real Estate: Treasury Tries to Re-Inflate Housing Bubble

Keepin' It Real Estate: Treasury Tries to Re-Inflate Housing Bubble

Getting to the "bottom" of the housing market.



Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is hoping he's found the magic bullet to solve the US housing market's seemingly never-endless woes.

He hasn’t.

By throwing around the weight of recently nationalized mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the Treasury Department is considering a plan to push interest rates on purchase money mortgages down to 4.5% - well below the current market rate of around 5.75%.

Artificially lowering rates so buyers can afford more house led us into this mess; it’s doubtful the same tactics will lead us out.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the plan is in the early stages of development, but officials expect the initiative to spur buying activity. The aim is to prop up home prices by enabling borrowers to afford more expensive houses. Columbia University economists believe such a program could help between 1.5 million and 2.5 million Americans buy new homes.

In order to qualify for the low rate, borrowers have to meet Fannie and Freddie’s now-stricter loan underwriting requirements. But even with more affordable monthly payments -- the lower rate amounts to savings of $150 per month on a $200,000 loan -- precious few prospective buyers are willing and able to pony up the tens of thousands dollars still required for a down payment.

Combined with the Federal Reserve’s recent $200 billion lending program for securities backed by newly originated mortgages, bureaucrats are pulling out all the stops to buoy falling property values.

This is the latest in a series of botched attempts to re-inflate the housing bubble. And like the others before it, the plan fails to address the root causes of ongoing home price declines: Negative equity, over-supply and mounting job losses.

The flood of recent loan modification programs championed by FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair and rolled out by JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) also miss the point. Like any distressed market, the housing market badly needs price discovery. And like any other asset class, the true price of a house is only discovered when someone buys it on the open market.

By creating unnaturally low interest rates and allowing buyers to purchase bigger homes than they could normally afford, Paulson and Bernanke are preventing home prices from falling back to where responsible, fiscally minded Americans can buy without the crutch of government subsidies.

These continued distortions of the free market end up running in contrast to their intended goals: As long as the charade continues, as long as the real estate market is prevented from finding a natural bottom, home prices will continue to fall.

The silver lining -- for those brave enough to uncover their eyes and look -- is that just as it overshot on the way up, the housing market will likewise overshoot on the way down.

A protracted period of stabilization will ensue, during which time the opportunity to purchase high-quality residential real estate below its long-term intrinsic value will be extraordinary.
Savvy investors with the ability to identify attractively priced properties will, eventually, have the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

source: minyanville.com

link to the original post:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Bernanke-C-Paulson-jpm-bac-Fed/index/a/20220


Fort Lauderdale Blog and Real Estate News
Rory Vanucchi
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http://waterfrontlife.blogspot.com
www.FortLauderdaleLiving.net

The Future for Home Prices

Over the past few years, Americans have had a brutal lesson in the risks of real estate. House prices have crashed more than 35% in some parts of the country, millions of people are losing their homes to foreclosure, and banks are failing.

The takeaway? Many Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. In survey after survey, people expect prices to bounce back -- in some cases, as soon as six months from now.

The Journal Report

Those hoping for a quick rebound are likely to be disappointed. Economists and other pros generally say home prices won't bottom out before the second half of 2009, and some don't see a bottom until 2011 or 2012. Even when they stop falling, prices may scrape along the bottom of the rut for years.

Down the Road

And longer term? Over the next 10 to 20 years, housing economists expect prices will rise again -- but, on average, probably not nearly as much as they've averaged over the past decade. That isn't to say that some places won't experience booms (and busts). But, the experts say, you should generally expect house prices to rise just a bit more than inflation and roughly in line with household income.

Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College whose name adorns the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, has studied U.S. house prices going back to the 1890s. Over the long run, he says, home prices tend to increase on average at an inflation-adjusted rate of 2.5% to 3% a year, about the same as per capita income. He thinks that long-run pattern is likely to continue, despite the recent choppiness.

Other experts make similarly modest predictions. William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says he expects house prices to increase at a rate roughly one percentage point higher than inflation over the long term. Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com, a research firm, expects house prices to increase an average of around 4% a year over the next couple of decades.

Some experts say it's a bad idea to count on your home rising in value at all. People should think of their own homes mainly as places to live, not as investments, advises Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Berkeley. Sure, home mortgages provide tax benefits, and most homes appreciate in value over the long run, he says, but there is always risk.

For all of those forecasts, many Americans are undaunted. Consider three surveys, all from October.

In a poll of 2,000 adults, real-estate-data provider Zillow.com found that 61% believed the value of their home would either remain level or rise over the next six months. Another survey of more than 1,000 homeowners, sponsored by real-estate-services firm Realogy Corp., found that 91% thought that owning a home was the best long-term investment they could make. And an online survey of 5,000 people commissioned by Citigroup found that just 32% believed it was a good time to invest in stocks -- but 51% said it was a good time to buy a home.

Real Time Economics

[Your Money Matters]

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed accelerating price declines in September. See a sortable chart of home prices, by metro area.

"I just believe in real estate," says Jason Schram, a lawyer in Chicago who has bought two rental properties this year at what he considers fire-sale prices. "I've seen over and over people I know build wealth through rental real estate, and that's the path I intend taking, even though it's a bit bumpy at the moment."

Location, Location

So, as homeowners and buyers look ahead, what factors will determine whether their homes are really likely to rise in value, rather than just in their dreams? What are some of the bullish signs -- and some of the bearish ones?

In the long term, house prices are driven by fundamentals that are hard to predict: immigration, birth rates, the size and nature of households, and incomes. The trick is to figure out where job and income growth will be strongest and where immigrants and others will want to live.

William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, says young people and immigrants are likely to flow to Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Virginia, Nevada, Arizona and some of the more affordable interior parts of California.

These areas generally have lower housing costs than the Pacific Coast or Northeast and job growth from modern industries and leisure businesses, he says. Areas with little immigration and low growth or falling populations are likely to include Michigan, Ohio, the Dakotas, Iowa, western Pennsylvania and upstate New York, Mr. Frey says.

Hit Parade

Newland Communities LLC, a San Diego-based planner and developer of neighborhoods, employs a full-time researcher to study long-term housing demand and ranks metro areas in terms of their growth prospects. Among those near the top of Newland's hit parade are Washington, D.C., Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Las Vegas, says Robert McLeod, the developer's chief executive.

All of them, Newland believes, will keep growing because they have well-diversified regional economies and other attractions, including mild climates. With the exception of Washington, they all have fairly affordable housing costs. Washington has a highly educated work force, high incomes, a stable source of government-related jobs and rapidly expanding technology firms, Newland says.

"The older industrial cities are going to suffer" from shrinking employment and forbidding weather, says Mr. Rosen of the University of California. Some Sun Belt cities, including Atlanta, also could languish if traffic jams and sprawl ruin their charms, he says.

Among metro areas that Mr. Rosen expects to do well in the long run are Albuquerque, N.M.; Boise, Idaho; Salt Lake City; Seattle; Portland, Ore.; Denver and Colorado Springs, Colo. He says those places generally offer "urban vitality" and "easy access to outdoor activities" combined with affordable housing and good job-growth prospects from modern industries, such as biotechnology.

Still, just looking at population trends isn't enough. Prices in the crowded coastal areas tend to be more volatile, rising and then falling much faster during booms and busts than do inland areas, Mr. Case notes. Shortages of land and building restrictions make it hard for builders to respond quickly when demand for housing rises in coveted neighborhoods near the coasts; further inland, it's usually much easier to find vacant homes or land, and so sudden movements in prices are less likely.

For instance, despite rapid growth, home prices in Texas cities have tended to climb only gradually. Those cities typically have plenty of room to sprawl, and Texas regulates land use less strictly than many other states. Supply swells to meet demand.

[Your Money Matters] Stephen Webster / Wonderful Machine
The Wonder Years

What's more, no one can assess the outlook for housing without considering the effects of 78 million aging baby boomers. For instance, some housing experts believe the boomers will be much less likely than their parents to settle for sun and golf in their retirement; they may prefer urban settings with lots of cultural life or to live nearer friends and families. That could mean higher demand -- and increased prices -- for housing in urban neighborhoods.

Most of this is just guesswork, though. "A lot of people have theories about the baby boomers," says Mr. Frey, the Brookings demographer, but boomers always have tended to confound expectations.

Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography at the University of Southern California, warns that the retirement of boomers over the next two decades is likely to depress house prices in many areas. As boomers relocate to retirement homes and cemeteries, there will be a lot more sellers than buyers in parts of the country, he says.

"It's going to really mess up the housing market," says Mr. Myers. He predicts that this "generational correction" will be larger and longer-lasting than the current slump.

To get a sense of the effects of aging boomers, Mr. Myers looks at the number of Americans 65 and over per 1,000 working-age people. He sees that number soaring to 318 in the year 2020 and 411 in 2030 from 238 in 2000.

Many people over 65 buy homes, of course, but as they get older they become more likely to sell than buy. People aged 75 to 79 are more than three times as likely to be sellers than buyers, Mr. Myers says.

In some areas, younger people will be happy to buy (and probably renovate) those boomer nests. The problem, Mr. Myers says, will be in places where lots of older people are selling and few young people are settling down. He says the effects will be strongest in the "coldest, most congested and most expensive states rather than the high-growth states of the South or West." Among the states where Mr. Myers sees downward pressure on prices within the next decade: Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York and Massachusetts.

Of course, applying demographic trends to house-price forecasts can be hazardous. Economists N. Gregory Mankiw and David Weil predicted in a paper in 1989 that demographic trends would lead to a "substantial" fall in real, or inflation-adjusted, home prices over the next two decades "if the historical relation between housing demand and housing prices continues." They reasoned that baby boomers were coming to the end of their prime house-buying years and that the smaller baby-bust generation would bring lower demand for housing.

That warning proved, at a minimum, premature. Despite the recent drop, the average U.S. home price is up about 35% in real terms since the end of 1989, according to the Ofheo index. Messrs. Mankiw and Weil both declined to comment.

Few people who invest in housing have time to follow these academic debates. For nearly four decades, Rich Sommer and his wife, Carolyn, have been investing in rental properties in and near Stevens Point, Wis. Mr. Sommer describes real estate as a good way "to get rich slowly." He and his wife, both former schoolteachers, gradually have built their net worth from zero to around $2.5 million through their rental properties. They have dealt with countless plumbing emergencies, evicted deadbeats and even once had to clean up after a suicide in one of their properties.

Still, he hasn't been hit very hard by the real-estate crash, in part because the Midwest is much less vulnerable to booms and busts than coastal areas. When asked what he would do if someone handed him $1 million today, Mr. Sommer doesn't hesitate: He would put it into real estate.

—Mr. Hagerty is a staff reporter for The Wall Street Journal in Pittsburgh.

Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com



source: wsj

link to the original post:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122764977315457619.html


Fort Lauderdale Blog and Real Estate News
Rory Vanucchi
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http://waterfrontlife.blogspot.com
www.FortLauderdaleLiving.net

Dec 4, 2008

Has the bubble burst?

Nov 27th 2008 DUBAI
From The Economist print edition

As the sheen comes off glitzy Dubai, the other Gulf states are getting nervous too


“THEY said you couldn’t create islands in the middle of a city,” shouts a property advertisement over a jammed Dubai motorway. “We said, what’s next?” The range of answers has become gloomier by the week, as the debate moves from whether the Dubai property bubble will burst to just how bad it is going to get. Some nervous bankers think property prices could fall by 80% or so in the next year or so. A few months ago, rich foreigners who had bought villas in Dubai were complaining about the quality of the sand on their artificial beaches or the difficulty of getting water to circulate around the twiddly fronds of the man-made island shaped like a palm. Now prices for some smart developments have been cut by 40% since September, shares in property firms have lost 80% of their value since June, and big developers are laying people off.

The region’s banks will suffer too. Gulf policymakers are still making cheery statements about the region’s limited exposure to subprime loans but are quieter about heavy investments in inflated local property markets by regional banks, particularly Islamic ones. But worried banks are sharply reining in their mortgage lending. A series of arrests of senior businessmen as part of a fraud investigation is also making people twitchy. There is even talk of a coming “Gulf Enron”.

While the stunning opacity of government economic data is increasing the air of uncertainty, Muhammad Alabbar, who heads Emaar, a giant state-controlled property developer, took the rare step of telling people how indebted the country is. Together, the government and state-owned enterprises owe $80 billion—148% of GDP. Dubai still has a far larger stock of assets, at least some of which are likely to be sold, to cover the debts, to Abu Dhabi or the federal sovereign-wealth fund of the seven-state United Arab Emirates, of which Dubai and Abu Dhabi are the two richest.

The rest of the Gulf has met Dubai’s phenomenal boom with a mixture of envy and emulation. Now there are hints of pleasure at the idea that the epicentre of bullishness may be humbled. But there are worrying questions for the others, too. Could the Dubai property slump prove contagious? Will the Gulf Co-operation Council pull together to protect the region’s economy? Should its planned monetary union be set aside as governments focus on protecting their own currency?

Who do we listen to now?

Since everyone else has been trying to copy Dubai, it is unclear how economic policy should be reshaped if the model has to be rescued. Advisers who have been preaching free markets and foreign investment will have a tougher time as economic power shifts back to the more conservative, oil-rich governments such as Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia.

Political stability may be affected too. A worsening economy may encourage political reform, on the assumption that people can be more easily bought off in times of plenty. At a recent BBC debate in Doha, Qatar’s capital, on whether Gulf Arabs value profit over people, young Qataris said critics of their countries’ poor treatment of foreign workers should look on the bright side; local citizens benefit from large gifts of land and free university education. Since the oil boom began in 2003, mega-rich Qatar has ramped up public spending by an average of 28% per year; the less well-endowed states have had to make do with annual rises of some 15-20%.

Several GCC economies will go into budget deficits next year for the first time since at least 2002, including Saudi Arabia, whose budget is based on oil at around $50 a barrel but excludes the cost of Saudi Aramco’s massive programme of capacity expansion. Unemployment will rise as thousands more young people, many of them graduates with high expectations, enter the job market. Social unrest is likely to brew. The question is whether governments will meet it with repression or political concessions.

source: economist.com

link to the original post:
http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12684897&fsrc=rss


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Are Things About to Turn Around for Housing?

I know it is fashionable to be bearish on housing, but are things about to pivot and turn? Put these two items together:

1) The Housing Affordability Index reached 141.1 in the most recent release. This was the highest in at least six years. As one blogger noted, this will move even higher next month due to a drop in fixed mortgage rates to the current 5.75%.

2) The U.S. Treasury is considering a plan to drive mortgage rates down to as low as 4.5%. They would accomplish this by purchasing mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

Would low housing prices and a generational low in mortgage rates prove too tempting to home buyers and cause a mini boom in housing and begin to clear inventory?

source: seekingalpha.com

link to the original post:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/109224-are-things-about-to-turn-around-for-housing


Fort Lauderdale Blog and Real Estate News
Rory Vanucchi
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http://waterfrontlife.blogspot.com
www.FortLauderdaleLiving.net

State Keeps Hiring

Government Hiring

Finding ways to grow: Government keeps hiring as the private sector in Florida trimmed more than 100,000 jobs in a year.

City Hall jobs
[Illustration: Judi Guitteau]
Across Florida over the past year, painful cuts in government services have become increasingly common. Some disabled adults have lost access to transportation. Foster kids wait longer for adoption services. Fewer troopers patrol the highways. Music and art instruction have been axed in some public schools. University presidents complain of a “brain drain” of many talented professors.

But you wouldn’t know any of that from looking at the public payroll. Amid the severe economic decline, government — the third-largest employment sector in Florida — has added nearly 10,000 jobs in the state over the past year.

Donald Boyd
“In a recession, what you invariably see are significant declines in private-sector employment, and in the public sector,
with rare exceptions, no downturn in employment
but rather a slowdown in
the rate of growth.”

— Donald J. Boyd, senior fellow at the Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York
That growth occurred as Florida’s private-sector employers dealing with the start of recession shed 129,500 jobs in the same period — September 2007 to September 2008. Overall, while Florida’s private employment decreased 1.9% over that period, government jobs increased about 1%.

The pattern is the same at the national level and is typical of almost every modern recession, says Donald J. Boyd, senior fellow at the Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York. “In a recession, what you invariably see are significant declines in private-sector employment, and in the public sector, with rare exceptions, no downturn in employment but rather a slowdown in the rate of growth.”

Most new jobs in Florida came from local government, followed by federal government, which is the largest employer in the nation. State government was the only part of the public sector that saw a net loss.

In interviews, local government officials across the state expressed disbelief at the numbers, citing layoffs in the hundreds, from sheriff’s deputies to building inspectors. Rebecca Rust, director of labor market information at Florida’s Agency for Workforce Innovation, says it’s true there’s been a dramatic dip in local-government employment — but it’s a decline in growth, not a net decline. “It’s a very mixed bag,” Rust says. “Some local governments do have a significant decline, but others had increases.”

The Port St. Lucie area had the highest growth in all government jobs statewide, at 5.4%, as well as in local-government jobs, at 5.2% But the area also shows how local governments could be simultaneously adding jobs and experiencing layoffs. St. Lucie, one of the fastest-growing counties in the United States between 2000 and 2007, opened six schools in the past three years to deal with its expanding student population. Florida’s class-size amendment, passed by voters in 2002, limits the number of students to 18 in pre-K through third-grade classes; 22 in fourth to eighth grade; and 25 in high school.

Over the past year, Florida’s private sector cut 129,500 jobs. The state’s public sector added 9,800 jobs:

Dori Bryant
Florida Government Employment
Government Jobs
BranchSept. 2007Sept. 2008Jobs Change (statewide)
Local796,300804,300+1.0%
State216,900215,300-0.07
Federal127,400130,800+2.7
Total Govt.1,140,6001,150,400+0.86
Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation

Even as the St. Lucie School District added staff to fill schools, county government trimmed 250 jobs over the past year in areas from libraries to veterans services to environmental-resources protection. The county, which had more than 1,000 positions, is now down to 720 workers — the same number it employed in 2001, even though the county’s population has grown by 40% in that time.

“We’ve frozen; we’ve eliminated; we’ve shifted staff around; and we haven’t been able to provide salary increases, which is abysmal in this economy,” says County Commission Chairman Joe Smith. “We have a 20% smaller workforce with the same or larger demands on government services, and like every other Floridian, we’re trying to find ways to tighten the belt even more.”

jobs line art

Tourism, agriculture and home building may be the big revenue generators for Florida’s economy, but they don’t provide the most jobs. Florida’s top three employment sectors:










Top Employment Sectors in Florida
Top Sectors
Sector Jobs
Trade/ transportation/ utilities1,564,200
Professional/business1,275,200
Government1,150,400
Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (data not seasonally adjusted)

Boyd at the Rockefeller Institute says education is the single-largest component of state and local government, so growth in K-12 schools often drives public-sector growth in recession. Moreover, demand for the sorts of services government provides, from healthcare to social services, does not decline during recession. In fact, it often increases.

In addition to education, Rust says, hospitals, courts, correctional facilities and law-enforcement agencies are among the government areas still adding jobs in Florida. But she doesn’t necessarily expect the growth to hold. State and local revenues have declined with Florida’s housing market. Florida economists don’t expect a rebound until the 2010-11 fiscal year. Florida lawmakers had to shrink this year’s budget by $4 billion and now face another $4 billion hole next year. The first step in trimming is often to eliminate all vacant positions and cut work hours, Rust says — actions already taken across the state that don’t result in a statistical loss.

The next step: Layoffs — or maybe not. Consider these two cases:

  • Pinellas Sheriff Jim Coats, who warned taxpayers last spring that the streets would be “littered with human carnage” if he had to cut his budget by 10%, made the cut and eliminated 161 positions, 25 of those deputies. But Hillsborough Sheriff David Gee had a deputy shortage, so he snapped up every laid-off Pinellas cop who wanted to come. “I don’t think they had to miss a day’s pay,” says Coats. Meanwhile, there are few signs of human carnage on Pinellas streets, although Coats says the non-violent crime rate is up slightly in the areas covered by his agency.
  • In Gainesville, which had the third-highest government-sector growth in the state, at 2.7%, officials with University of Florida-affiliated Shands HealthCare recently announced plans to shutter an entire hospital. Shands AGH, Gainesville’s longtime community hospital, employs 1,150. Shands HealthCare CEO Tim Goldfarb says he must cut a total $65 million from the system’s budget in the next three years to offset anticipated shortfalls in federal and state funding and insurance reimbursement. Shands will close 80-year-old AGH next fall, about the time it opens a $385-million cancer hospital on campus expected to create 1,200 jobs. In fact, Goldfarb says, “We believe we can find a job for everybody” who loses one in the AGH closure.

Indeed, across the nation, says Boyd, government is good at finding ways to grow — even during hard times. “The numbers are dramatic and persistent over time,” Boyd says, “in recession after recession after recession.”

Big Local Growers
The top five Florida metro areas for local-government job growth:
Local Government
Growth
(Sept. 07-Sept. 08)
Port St. Lucie
5.2%
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent
3.5
Panama City/Lynn Haven
3.0
Bradenton-Sarasota
2.5
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield
2.2


source: floridatrend.com

link to the original post:
http://floridatrend.com/article.asp?page=3&aID=50135


Fort Lauderdale Blog and Real Estate News
Rory Vanucchi
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http://waterfrontlife.blogspot.com
www.FortLauderdaleLiving.net


Dubai Speculators Quit as Lending Drought Bursts Desert Bubble

By Glen Carey

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The classified ads in Dubai read like an obituary for a real-estate market that until a few months ago seemed immune from the global credit crisis.

A Turkish investor, who identified himself as Sebat, took out 10 bright yellow ads in the Nov. 25 edition of Gulf News, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest newspaper, with the headline: “DIRECT FROM OWNER DISTRESS SALE!!!” Sebat said he used to be able to buy four or five properties at a time and sell them the next day for a profit of as much as 5 percent.

“There is panic in the market,” said Sebat, 52, who wouldn’t give his full name because he’s juggling 60 properties.

The property bubble in the desert emirate, home to the world’s tallest building, most expensive hotel suite and largest manmade islands, is bursting as scarce credit and slumping oil prices have international investors scurrying to dump assets. That may shatter Dubai’s goal of creating a sustainable economy by building the Persian Gulf hub for finance and tourism, forcing it to depend on oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi for financing.

“Dubai is more precarious than it has ever been,” said Christopher Davidson, author of “Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success” (2008, Columbia University Press). “If the property industry collapses in Dubai, it will be finished. Dubai’s relative autonomy will come to an abrupt end.”

The emirate’s push into luxury property developments and tourist attractions was diversification on “paper sand,” said Davidson, a professor of Middle Eastern affairs at Durham University in the U.K.

‘Nasty Downturn’

Real-estate prices may drop 20 percent or more, analysts at EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, the biggest publicly traded investment bank in Egypt, said in a report this week.

Nakheel PJSC, the Dubai state-owned developer of three palm-shaped islands in the Persian Gulf, said Nov. 30 that it is scaling back or delaying work on some of its $30 billion in projects, including the 62-story Trump International Hotel & Tower near the Mega Yacht Club on the trunk of Palm Jumeirah.

“In such a nasty downturn, which we are seeing now, they are just not immune to global events,” said Michael Baer, founder of Dubai-based Baer Capital Partners and great-grandson of Julius Baer, who started Switzerland’s largest independent wealth manager. “Maybe the boom is over for the time being.”

The sheikhdom may need help from Abu Dhabi and the U.A.E. to service its debt, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Dubai borrowed $80 billion to finance its transformation and make up for a lack of natural resources. It has just 4 billion barrels of oil reserves, compared with Abu Dhabi’s 92.2 billion barrels.

‘Healthy Correction’

Dubai officials say the emirate can weather the storm.

“The real estate sector is witnessing a healthy correction,” Mohammed Ali Alabbar, chairman of Emaar Properties PJSC and head of a committee studying the effects of the global credit crisis on Dubai’s economy, said in a Nov. 24 speech. “This is a consequence of global financial conditions and is inherent to the very nature of the market.”

Dubai will meet its debt obligations, he said.

Baer said he is optimistic the boom will return if the government takes the right actions. “There will be layoffs, they will have readjustments in asset prices and maybe they will have more careful accounting practices,” he said.

Led by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, Dubai attracted investment with no income tax and free-trade zones. Dubai, the second-biggest of the U.A.E.’s seven states, benefited from an inflow of international investors eager to tap the Gulf’s wealth after a six-year surge in oil prices.

Five-Year Boom

Real-estate values surged fourfold over the past five years, fueled by a supply shortage and an influx of expatriates. Rising commodities prices drove inflation, which accelerated to a record 11.1 percent in the U.A.E. last year. Dubai opened its property market to foreign investment in 2002.

Borrowers tapped mortgages for as much as 90 percent of a property’s value to buy homes on the manmade fronds of the Palm Jumeirah and villas with gardens or golf-course views in developments such as Emirates Hills, The Springs and The Lakes.

Now the credit crunch is coming to Dubai. It’s being aggravated by oil prices that have tumbled 68 percent since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

That will mean less interest in buying third or fourth homes in Dubai, said Gabriel Stein, a director at London’s Lombard Street Research, which provides economic analysis.

“There are bound to be white-elephant developments,” he said. “If it was built on the premise of ‘build it and they will come’ then that will now turn out to be a mistake.”

Bargain Villas

Banks are tightening lending or freezing it altogether. Amlak Finance PJSC, one of the U.A.E.’s biggest mortgage lenders, said Nov. 19 that it had suspended new home loans. London-based Lloyds TSB Group Plc stopped offering mortgages for apartments in Dubai on Nov. 11 and reduced the amount it will lend for villas to 50 percent of the price, from 80 percent.

The cost of a seven-bedroom villa on Palm Jumeirah dropped to as low as 19 million dirhams ($5.2 million) last month, from 30 million dirhams in September, according to the Dubai unit of German real-estate company Engel & Voelkers AG.

On Nov. 20, Nakheel and its South African partner threw a $20 million party for the opening of the $1.5 billion Atlantis resort, complete with the world’s biggest fireworks display and celebrities from actress Charlize Theron to singer Kylie Minogue. The hotel’s most expensive suite costs $42,000 a night excluding breakfast.

Two days later, the U.A.E. stepped in to shore up Dubai’s two biggest mortgage lenders, Amlak and Tamweel PJSC. They are merging with state-owned Real Estate Bank, based in Abu Dhabi.

No Longer Immune

Artur Khayrullin moved to Dubai three years ago to escape the Russian winter and invest in the booming real-estate market. Now he’s being forced to sell four apartments to raise cash for his family business in Moscow. They have been on the market for two months.

“With all this oil money in the region, I thought the Dubai property market would be secure from the global problems,” the 30-year-old Bentley owner said, reached on his mobile phone on the beach. Now, “nobody is getting financing.”

The worst may be yet to come as a glut of properties arrives on the market.

About 70,000 units are scheduled to be completed in 2009, more than half of which were originally planned for this year and last, according to a September report from EFG-Hermes.

Buyers willing to commit to purchases before construction are harder to find. So-called off-plan sales helped fuel the bubble with some properties passing through multiple buyers. Off-plan prices have dropped as much as 20 percent since September, according to developer Al Jabal Holdings.

“The speculative buyers were more than 50 percent of the market,” said Eckart Woertz, chief economist at the Dubai- based Gulf Research Center. “They have disappeared.”

Istanbul native Sebat said he’s prepared to leave after 12 years in Dubai.

“I will be in a very big panic and will want to get out of Dubai if I don’t think things will get better,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glen Carey in Dubai at gcarey8@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: December 3, 2008 19:27 EST

source: bloomberg.com

link to the original post:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2jrSPqYhVzY&refer=home


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Rory Vanucchi
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http://waterfrontlife.blogspot.com
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Bank cuts UK rates to 57-year low

UK interest rate graph

The Bank of England has cut interest rates by one percentage point, from 3% to 2% - the lowest level since 1951.

The move, which followed a dramatic cut in November, has been welcomed by many commentators who said the cut should help the slowing economy.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has urged lenders to pass on the cut to homeowners and business.

So far, only a handful of lenders have said they will pass on the cut in full to standard variable rate mortgages.

There has been no news yet for savers, with banks and building societies saying their savings rates are "under review".

"If the banks pass the interest rate reduction on, and I hope and believe that they should do so, then it's of benefit to homeowners and businesses right across the country," Gordon Brown told BBC Radio 5 Live.

HSBC , Bristol & West, and Lloyds TSB, which also owns Cheltenham and Gloucester, have said their standard variable rate mortgages would be cut by the full one percentage point cut.

You could almost hear the sigh of relief up and down the country

Hetal Mehta, Ernst & Young Item club

While Skipton building society said they would pass on a cut of at least 0.95 of a percentage point.

Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB/Cheltenham & Gloucester will also pass on the rate cut to their small business customers, they said.

Before the interest rates decision, Halifax said its customers with existing tracker mortgages, that follow moves in the Bank of England's Base Rate, would benefit in full from any cuts.

This was despite a clause in the Halifax's paperwork which would have allowed it to put a limit on the cuts it passed on to mortgage customers.

Economic turmoil


Rate of interest slashed again

Commenting on the reaction to the Bank's latest interest rates cut, BBC economics editor Hugh Pym said: "There wasn't quite the shock value of the dramatic one-and-a-half point reduction in November.

"But we shouldn't forget the scale of the Bank of England's action. The cost of borrowing has been more than halved since early October, as the Bank got to grips with the rapid decline in confidence and spending."

Earlier, there was further evidence of the rapidly slowing economy in the UK:

• House prices fell 2.6% between October and November - their sharpest monthly drop since the housing market crash of the 1990s - according to the Halifax.

• New car sales in November fell 36.8% on the year before - the steepest decline in nearly three decades according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders

• Homewares retail chain The Pier - which has 31 stores and 17 concessions across the UK - was placed in administration. It employs about 400 workers.

Central banks across Europe also cut rates in an effort to stem the economic decline.

The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate to 2.5% from 3.25%, the biggest reduction in its history.

Denmark's central bank also lowered its main interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, to 4.25%.

Earlier on Thursday, Sweden's central bank cut interest rates from 3.75% to 2% - a bigger-than-expected reduction.

'Bold but necessary'

This latest dramatic move by the Bank of England means that its Bank Rate is now at its lowest since November 1951- a year which saw the Festival of Britain and Winston Churchill become Prime Minister again.

ALSO IN 1951...
Festival of Britain 3-D cinema audience
January-June, Korean War saw heaving fighting across the 38th parallel
May, King George VI opened the Festival of Britain
October, the Conservatives won the general election
The average house cost £2,100
A loaf of bread cost 6d (2.5 pence)

Hetal Mehta of the Ernst & Young Item Club said: "You could almost hear the sigh of relief up and down the country."

"Anything less would have been a missed opportunity. The Bank has given the economy the right medicine at the right time."

"Manufacturing and services surveys this week have confirmed that the recession is gathering momentum. At the same time, commodity prices have collapsed and inflation is set to fall dramatically, the dire prospect of deflation is becoming more likely."

Graeme Leach of the Institute of Directors welcomed the Bank's decision, calling it "bold but necessary".

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said that because of worrying signs that UK activity was falling sharply, it was "critically important" the the Bank to persevere with "aggressive" rate cuts.

"There is a clear danger that unemployment will increase even more dramatically without urgent counter-measures," said David Kern, of the BCC.

HAVE YOUR SAY
Brilliant, once again the sensible savers get kicked in the teeth
Jason Jones, Birmingham

And he strongly urged the Bank of England's monetary policy committee to cut interest rates by at least a further half a percentage point at its January meeting.

Stephen Robertson of the British Retail Consortium said: "This is exactly the type of decisive action we need during these uncertain times. With the threat of inflation fading, the Bank of England is right to concentrate on jump-starting the economy."

source: bbc

link to the original post:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7764741.stm


Fort Lauderdale Blog and Real Estate News
Rory Vanucchi
RoryVanucchi@gmail.com

http://waterfrontlife.blogspot.com
www.FortLauderdaleLiving.net